| vanaj |
| (Searcher) |
| 12/27/07 10:04 PM |
|
Re: InternetSAR.org: Search for Ron Boychuk
|
Quote:
vanaj,
is there, or could there be anything to be learnt from Rons first leg from Springbank to Revelstoke ?
Departure time would give us some idea of how long it took to get to Revelstoke.
And if we can not determine if a flight plan was submitted, someone on the ground there may have been talking to him,,,(refueler etc, ) before he departed ?
It seems to me that that particular leg was also over some very remote and rough terrain, that doesn't lend itself to IFR at all.
If he flew this direct, it indicates to me that he is capable and confident enough to plan the second leg as a direct route as well, specially considering the available time he had to get to Qualicum before sunset.
Unless he was experiencing fuel consumption problems, or had strong head winds, the 172 would have definitely had the endurance to do it.
With the lack of official information and lack of confirmation as to news reports, I am finding myself starting to be left with the option of making assumptions.
The pic of his plane is the only clue so far as to what his plane was equipped with.
any comments ?
If we had take off times and landing times we could get a accurate ground speed and make some assumptions from there..also with the take off time from the refueling stop and the time reported over the Bridge we could verify the ground speed and get a good idea of any winds. I'd be willing to bet big that the SAR team talked to everyone at the last landing field and has some good info..maybe a little help from Ron's family would help us with facts and getting a more narrow window into the search area.
One of the only reasons to do a 180 and backtrack is weather...you would have a pretty good idea of the weather behind you and it is a good safe out to retreat in the face of bad weather. Should this have happened I would expect Ron to have radioed his position and intentions. Now what usually happens is flying into a lowering ceiling and pressing on...this usually results in scud running then CFIT.(Continued Flight Into Terrain) unless they are very lucky...but low clouds/fog usually get heavier/thicker the closer you get to the ocean. I hope that because he had done this route many times he didn't get over confident and press on into the above situation...the average life span of a non instrument rated pilot when entering clouds is only about 45 seconds before vertigo sets in and loss of control...sad but very true...