Blue21
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Reged: 10/03/07
Posts: 116
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Good shot Ken, Now all we need is the right imagery. I know - I Know,- You're working on it.
Yes we are working on it. All of our imagery is on the most probable flight path, but to the east of Salmon Arm. Ideally we will get some imagery to the west of Salmon Arm, but we have to remember that even the Salmon Arm info is rumint as supersquint would say. We can not and should not completely discount this imagery. As we should do, we will work on the best available imagery and best available information. If we get imagery to the west of the current imagery we may focus on it if the information we get from the Boychuk search team indicates that said imagery has a higher probability than our current imagery. At the same time, we will always revert back to lower probability imagery when we run out of the highest probability imagery.
It may be unlikely that he turned around, but it is not impossible. We simply don't know and we need to exhaust all possibilities in the order of probability.
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God this is frustrating. Hopefully that interview will stirr up some more interest and get someone to caugh up some info and imagery we can use.
Rome wasn't built in a day and we really are working in uncharted waters in many respects. The more we do this the better we will get at working with search teams and the more likely it will be that we get in on the decision process for choosing what areas imagery will be captured for.
Remember to find Ron Boychuk we must find where he is not.
Ken, I know that you are working on getting imagery and appreciate your aforementioned comments.
However, as an old aviator with 40 years of experience, my feeling is that if Boychuk’s last reported position was at Spense Bridge, then in all probability he continued flying west toward his destination. When a pilot reports a position like that with no other comments, it means that “I am at Spense Bridge proceeding on my original flight path and expect to complete my flight on time without incident.” If he was required to turn around due to weather or mechanical problem, there would be more evidence to that effect.
The image priority should be west of his last know position.
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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Ken, I know that you are working on getting imagery and appreciate your aforementioned comments. . However, as an old aviator with 40 years of experience, my feeling is that if Boychuk’s last reported position was at Spense Bridge, then in all probability he continued flying west toward his destination. When a pilot reports a position like that with no other comments, it means that “I am at Spense Bridge proceeding on my original flight path and expect to complete my flight on time without incident.” If he was required to turn around due to weather or mechanical problem, there would be more evidence to that effect. . The image priority should be west of his last know position.
We will always make the highest probability imagery that we have the priority for review. Right now the imagery we are working with is the highest probability imagery we have access to. Cuddly Bear is working with our contact to see if we can get higher probability imagery to the west of Salmon Arm/Suspense Bridge. But keep in mind we must also make sure we are getting imagery based on the best info the Boychuk SAR team has not necessarily what the media is reporting. All too often media reports are wrong or inaccurate.
I have asked Fishcat to work with others to track down the best available information and to work on separating fact from rumor. We must make sure that if we do request new imagery and change our imagery priorities that this is based on known facts not rumors.
I'm so busy trying to program the stuff we need to make InternetSAR.org work that I really don't have any time to do the fact checking myself, which is why I have asked Fishcat to take the lead on this. Until this past weekend I didn't even know for sure if we were actually going to be getting imagery for the Boychuk search and I didn't start to learn what areas were covered by the imagery until I started playing with it and made it live on InternetSAR.org on the 24th.
-------------------- InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
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rpmckinley
Explorer
Reged: 09/10/07
Posts: 187
Loc: Texas, USA
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Blue one, You just hit on our most frustrating point. Throughtout all the time and efforts that we have put in during the searcg for Steve Fossett, and now with the search for Ron Boychuk, we have been frustrated by our inability to control our own imagery sources. Although we have been very fortunate in getting good imagery from the poeple who provide it, And we are greatful to them for providing what they have, as we build our intelegence information on things we eventually learn that we need or would like images from some different areas. So far that has been difficult or nearly impossible to obtain. As we continue to develop this InternetSAR into a viable process it is hoped that eventually we will gain enough credability that it will become much easier to obtain the imagery we need when we need it.
But until that time comes we are at the mersy of those who contol the cameras and the satellittes, and the purse strings.
Welcome aboard.
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balmerbay
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 287
Loc: Chesapeake Bay
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Ken, I know that you are working on getting imagery and appreciate your aforementioned comments. . However, as an old aviator with 40 years of experience, my feeling is that if Boychuk’s last reported position was at Spense Bridge, then in all probability he continued flying west toward his destination. When a pilot reports a position like that with no other comments, it means that “I am at Spense Bridge proceeding on my original flight path and expect to complete my flight on time without incident.” If he was required to turn around due to weather or mechanical problem, there would be more evidence to that effect. . The image priority should be west of his last know position.
We will always make the highest probability imagery that we have the priority for review. Right now the imagery we are working with is the highest probability imagery we have access to. Cuddly Bear is working with our contact to see if we can get higher probability imagery to the west of Salmon Arm/Suspense Bridge. But keep in mind we must also make sure we are getting imagery based on the best info the Boychuk SAR team has not necessarily what the media is reporting. All too often media reports are wrong or inaccurate.
I have asked Fishcat to work with others to track down the best available information and to work on separating fact from rumor. We must make sure that if we do request new imagery and change our imagery priorities that this is based on known facts not rumors.
I'm so busy trying to program the stuff we need to make InternetSAR.org work that I really don't have any time to do the fact checking myself, which is why I have asked Fishcat to take the lead on this. Until this past weekend I didn't even know for sure if we were actually going to be getting imagery for the Boychuk search and I didn't start to learn what areas were covered by the imagery until I started playing with it and made it live on InternetSAR.org on the 24th.
If my computer holds up, I'm back looking at the new imagery. Merry Christmas to everyone...I did find this article for Fishcat to look at if he hasn't already.
Boychuk-Oct 30
Also, I think it would be nice to have some info on plane dimensions or a link to one on the internetsar.org site (For those not familiar with Cessnas). I've looked at Airliners.net for info. I'm sure there are others.
Great work and commitment Ken and to everyone else!!
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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Blue one, You just hit on our most frustrating point. Throughtout all the time and efforts that we have put in during the searcg for Steve Fossett, and now with the search for Ron Boychuk, we have been frustrated by our inability to control our own imagery sources. Although we have been very fortunate in getting good imagery from the poeple who provide it, And we are greatful to them for providing what they have, as we build our intelegence information on things we eventually learn that we need or would like images from some different areas. So far that has been difficult or nearly impossible to obtain. As we continue to develop this InternetSAR into a viable process it is hoped that eventually we will gain enough credability that it will become much easier to obtain the imagery we need when we need it. . But until that time comes we are at the mersy of those who contol the cameras and the satellittes, and the purse strings. . Welcome aboard.
These are very important points. Two months ago when Ron Boychuk went missing, InternetSAR.org did not exist. On December 5th when I was first contacted about helping out with the Ron Boychuk search I had only been developing InternetSAR.org for two maybe three weeks and only had the barest skeleton of a site online.
In one month InternetSAR.org has gone from being a bunch of theoretical discussions and wish lists on this forum into being a reality that is working on a real search effort. When you think about this, it is really amazing. There is a long way to go, but we have also come a long way in a very short period of time. We must also remember that we are charting a whole new territory with search and rescue. There will be bumps and setbacks along the way.
Eventually we will have a role to play in how imagery is captured and eventually we will have the credibility to get the funding we need to get better imagery, but for now we need to do the best job we can with what we have. The imagery is on Ron Boychuk's most likely fight path and it does need to be evaluated. As we get imagery for higher probability areas we will push that imagery ahead of this imagery in the assignment queue.
The best way for us to find Ron Boychuk is to work as hard as we can and do the best job we can with what we have to prove to those who control the purse strings that this is a viable means to find a down aircraft. Patience and persistence will win the day.
-------------------- InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
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redlands19
Searcher
Reged: 09/09/07
Posts: 553
Loc: Devon UK
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Blue one, You just hit on our most frustrating point. Throughtout all the time and efforts that we have put in during the searcg for Steve Fossett, and now with the search for Ron Boychuk, we have been frustrated by our inability to control our own imagery sources. Although we have been very fortunate in getting good imagery from the poeple who provide it, And we are greatful to them for providing what they have, as we build our intelegence information on things we eventually learn that we need or would like images from some different areas. So far that has been difficult or nearly impossible to obtain. As we continue to develop this InternetSAR into a viable process it is hoped that eventually we will gain enough credability that it will become much easier to obtain the imagery we need when we need it.
But until that time comes we are at the mersy of those who contol the cameras and the satellittes, and the purse strings.
Welcome aboard.
Fish, cats, penguins, and another wild goose? Yup, plane could of back tracked, but prob has'nt. Hope SupSq, BP and FC manage to sort a few facts from the fiction! Not you fault Ken, you can only work with what you have! Tad irritating if plane is found to have already passed through area of images available though! Hey Ho! Will await their findings.  If its of any help sorting the wheat from the chaff. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2007/11/03/bc-search.html?ref=rss http://www.airforce.forces.gc.ca/19wing/news/releases_e.asp?cat=79&id=4744 http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071028/missing_plane_071028 And one on the weather at the time. http://www.wunderground.com/history/stat...eq_statename=NA
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blue_penguin
Searcher
Reged: 10/02/07
Posts: 440
Loc: France
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We need a confirmation from Revelstoke about Ron Boychuk refueling in this airport (NB: apart his (phone?) communication with his family, e.g. maybe he paid fuel by credit card and when), we must know at what time *exactly* he took off from Revelstoke (control tower report?).
I understood Ron Boychuk usually (always?) stopped at Salmon Arm for fueling and he was scheduled to stop in Salmon Arm. But... Apparently he refueled in Revelstoke which is very near. Why? Because he planned to take another route than Salmon Arm? This info *must* be clarified asap.
"Took off from Revelstoke at 2:00PM (14:00)" or "Refueled in Revelstoke at 3:05PM (15:05)" is absolutely not the same info. The apparent sunset october 23 in Vancouver/Nanaimo (possible error excepted, please someone else verify) was: 5:07PM (17:07) and if I have correctly understood, the mountains which are forwards, and the area around Vancouver international, are not exactly very pleasant at night. This info *must* be clarified, because it means a possible backtrack, even IMO a backtrack from Revelstoke to his starting point.
04:10 here, Goodnight America...
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rpmckinley
Explorer
Reged: 09/10/07
Posts: 187
Loc: Texas, USA
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Also, I think it would be nice to have some info on plane dimensions or a link to one on the internetsar.org site (For those not familiar with Cessnas). I've looked at <a href="www.airliners.net" target="_blank">Airliners.net</a> for info. I'm sure there are others.
Here is a link to some Cessna 172 specs. http://www.pilotfriend.com/aircraft%20performance/Cessna/c172%20c175.htm
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Blue21
Searcher
Reged: 10/03/07
Posts: 116
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Ken, I know that you are working on getting imagery and appreciate your aforementioned comments. . However, as an old aviator with 40 years of experience, my feeling is that if Boychuk’s last reported position was at Spense Bridge, then in all probability he continued flying west toward his destination. When a pilot reports a position like that with no other comments, it means that “I am at Spense Bridge proceeding on my original flight path and expect to complete my flight on time without incident.” If he was required to turn around due to weather or mechanical problem, there would be more evidence to that effect. . The image priority should be west of his last know position.
We will always make the highest probability imagery that we have the priority for review. Right now the imagery we are working with is the highest probability imagery we have access to. Cuddly Bear is working with our contact to see if we can get higher probability imagery to the west of Salmon Arm/Suspense Bridge. But keep in mind we must also make sure we are getting imagery based on the best info the Boychuk SAR team has not necessarily what the media is reporting. All too often media reports are wrong or inaccurate.
I have asked Fishcat to work with others to track down the best available information and to work on separating fact from rumor. We must make sure that if we do request new imagery and change our imagery priorities that this is based on known facts not rumors.
I'm so busy trying to program the stuff we need to make InternetSAR.org work that I really don't have any time to do the fact checking myself, which is why I have asked Fishcat to take the lead on this. Until this past weekend I didn't even know for sure if we were actually going to be getting imagery for the Boychuk search and I didn't start to learn what areas were covered by the imagery until I started playing with it and made it live on InternetSAR.org on the 24th.
I fully concur with your perspective. It seems that the decision on were is the best place to look turns on whether or not it is factual that Boychuk made a radio transmission position report over Spense Bridge. Apparently we should work on verifying that fact. It should be a matter of record somewhere that he did indeed make a position report over Spense Bridge. If so then that is more than circumstantial evidence that he was heading west from that point.
I agree with your premise that to find Boychuk, we must find where he is not, however when my horses break down the fence and run off and I can see their tracks leading off, I can assume that they are no longer in the pasture. At that point I consider that I have found where they are not.
Ken, I am not simply being argumentative, just trying to give you input for talking points when you try to obtain the pertinent imagery.
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balmerbay
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 287
Loc: Chesapeake Bay
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Ken,
Could you check this overlay or whoever does this? It doesn't seem to match up with the old layer.
boychuk_071129-R1C2_23808_8448
tks
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