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Hi Jim,

the winds are also higher at altitude.

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Hi Jim,

I agree with you. Weather should not be a problem.
I personally would also fly the direct route.

In this case, most of the flight over the mountains should be covered by radar.
It would be interesting to know, were the radar trace endet.
Was he decending (forced to decend) at this time?

Joe

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Since the Radar Sight/track was from US Border Patrol Aircraft and I believe they might be a little short on information and capabilities of that equipment so that information might be considered a little sensitive at this time.

My personal feeling is that 8500 would be a minimum altitude for this direct route of flight passing Lytton, before this there are many valleys and lower terrain that would allow a lower altitude.

But then again the fuel consumption is lower at higher altitudes and with thiner air the plane has less drag and you would see high true airspeeds a big factor when flying into a headwind.

Jim

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Some posts about radar position: http://www.aviation.ca/content/view/5056/117/ (please scroll down, and... Do not come to insult me later if there is nothing of interest inside ) EDIT: for me the problem's settled.

Interesting photos, high pass, low pass

Seems serious people, but caution: as usual, not verified, not official info.


EDIT: Noted that the previous "weather report" given by the press was false too... Thank you infinitely joe1203. I thought of arriving retired before I see suitable info coming to us...

Regards

Edited by blue_penguin (01/02/08 03:50 AM)

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EDIT: Noted that the previous "weather report" given by the press was false too... Thank you infinitely joe1203. I thought of arriving retired before I see suitable info coming to us...

Regards

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EDIT: Noted that the previous "weather report" given by the press was false too... Thank you infinitely joe1203. I thought of arriving retired before I see suitable info coming to us...

Regards

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What wx report in the press are you talking about ??

What was the content of that report..

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Er... Oops... I think I put this in the garbage disposal with the rest... They reported clouds at low altitude over mountains, thing like that, and I stupidly deducted from this that Boychuk could not take the direct route with such a meteo, there was a thing about high winds also... I think it is not topical anymore...

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EDIT: Noted that the previous "weather report" given by the press was false too... Thank you infinitely joe1203. I thought of arriving retired before I see suitable info coming to us...

Regards

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EDIT: Noted that the previous "weather report" given by the press was false too... Thank you infinitely joe1203. I thought of arriving retired before I see suitable info coming to us...

Regards

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It has been reported by the family that Ron told his wife he was going by way of Salmon Arm, this generally does not mean he had intended to stop at Salmon Arm. In pilot speak this means I will use Salmon Arm as a navigational point and use the route over Salmon Arm to his destination.

This does not mean the same thing as saying "I'm going to my sisters house by way of my brothers house" which implies you will stop at your brothers on the way to your sisters.

The freezing level along the route that I have posted was ~3600m near Revelstoke and about the same at the destination with no major changes along the route, not a problem with icing.

Revelstoke Weather reports from 1300,1400,1500 local time...and showing a break in the overcast between 1400 and 1500 local time.

CYRV 232000Z AUTO 03002KTS 9SM OVC016 10/06 A3038
CYRV 232100Z AUTO 03002KTS 9SM OVC019 11/07 A3035
CYRV 232200Z AUTO 01003KTS 9SM BKN021 11/07 A3033

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Check. Do I correctly understand that his late departure was probably due to the amelioration of the meteo late in this day?

I totally agree with you now he had planned to make the direct route.

And... for the moment of visible night at his planned arrival, I had confused the "usual" hour of sunset with the hour of visible twilight, as which we are never short of stupidities when we do not pay very attention in these kind of things...

EDIT: 1:40 of margin before the dark (if I don't make a new mistake...) This is no more at all an unreasonable decision.

Edited by blue_penguin (01/01/08 06:09 PM)

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One radar report/sighting near Spences Bridge could be anything from another plane in area, to a Penguin with ruffled feathers! One 'beep! bird' or tracked all the way?

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Please read the type of radar it was again...and birds usually don't show up on radar unless they are in a flock..and they don't fly in straight lines.

Another plane..but going on the same track from Revelstoke to CAT4 with the same GS and time ??

The only bird that might have been in this area able to reach those speeds is the Peregrine Falcon.

Now on the Endangered Species List, many have taken up residence in cities living on tall building and feeding on the easy prey of pigeons in the area.

But then again it would not show up on radar by it's self.

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Sorry if my comments were misinterpreted, i wasnt actually sugesting that radar was detecting a bird, Perigrine or other.
Was trying to find out how far plane was tracked for. All the way from Revelstoke? or just one quck return near Spences bridge?
Point being that if all the way from Revelstoke, then more than just a fair chance it was Ron's plane. One return at Spences Bridge then?
Was agreeing with your findings, in general.

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One radar report/sighting near Spences Bridge could be anything from another plane in area, to a Penguin with ruffled feathers! One 'beep! bird' or tracked all the way?

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Please read the type of radar it was again...and birds usually don't show up on radar unless they are in a flock..and they don't fly in straight lines.

Another plane..but going on the same track from Revelstoke to CAT4 with the same GS and time ??

The only bird that might have been in this area able to reach those speeds is the Peregrine Falcon.

Now on the Endangered Species List, many have taken up residence in cities living on tall building and feeding on the easy prey of pigeons in the area.

But then again it would not show up on radar by it's self.

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Sorry if my comments were misinterpreted, i wasnt actually sugesting that radar was detecting a bird, Perigrine or other.
Was trying to find out how far plane was tracked for. All the way from Revelstoke? or just one quck return near Spences bridge?
Point being that if all the way from Revelstoke, then more than just a fair chance it was Ron's plane. One return at Spences Bridge then?
Was agreeing with your findings, in general.

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Sorry for that...

The plane does not have to be tracked all the way to make an educated conclusion. With the source of the tracking device(more than likely classified) the public might never know how far it was tracked, and maybe the SAR team might never know that either.

With only a couple of sweeps of the radar you can tell speed and direction and altitude if the radar and the plane has those capabilities.

Now if the radar showed a target on about a 226 degree track at about a 70kt ground speed using time/distance you can work the problem backwards and find the point of origin...and with that same information you can make a pretty good estimate of the destination...

This is the kind of information and calculations were being done for many/most of the radar tracks in the area/time Fossett went missing.

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"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination are omnipotent. The slogan 'press on' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."...Calvin Coolidge 30th President of the USA.

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(snip-snip-snip) Was trying to find out how far plane was tracked for

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Personally I have no intellectual hang-up to consider that the "new" NORAD have become a true sieve since its house-moving. But I don't think that this opinion will be understood at its right value on this side of the Atlantic...

Then I prefer to leave with Vanaj the time to answer seriously your question not to crush his post...

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