Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

EDIT: Noted that the previous "weather report" given by the press was false too... Thank you infinitely joe1203. I thought of arriving retired before I see suitable info coming to us...

Regards

---

It has been reported by the family that Ron told his wife he was going by way of Salmon Arm, this generally does not mean he had intended to stop at Salmon Arm. In pilot speak this means I will use Salmon Arm as a navigational point and use the route over Salmon Arm to his destination.

This does not mean the same thing as saying "I'm going to my sisters house by way of my brothers house" which implies you will stop at your brothers on the way to your sisters.

The freezing level along the route that I have posted was ~3600m near Revelstoke and about the same at the destination with no major changes along the route, not a problem with icing.

Revelstoke Weather reports from 1300,1400,1500 local time...and showing a break in the overcast between 1400 and 1500 local time.

CYRV 232000Z AUTO 03002KTS 9SM OVC016 10/06 A3038
CYRV 232100Z AUTO 03002KTS 9SM OVC019 11/07 A3035
CYRV 232200Z AUTO 01003KTS 9SM BKN021 11/07 A3033

---

Check. Do I correctly understand that his late departure was probably due to the amelioration of the meteo late in this day?

---

Yes, that would be a good observation...the temp and dew point were close causing the low cloud cover and he was not able to take off until there was a break in the clouds.

From that we can assume he was not Instrument rated or Instrument current or the plane was not certified for IFR flight.

--------------------
"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination are omnipotent. The slogan 'press on' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."...Calvin Coolidge 30th President of the USA.

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

(snippp)...the temp and dew point were close causing the low cloud cover and he was not able to take off until there was a break in the clouds.

From that we can assume he was not Instrument rated or Instrument current or the plane was not certified for IFR flight.

---

Check. Thanks

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

(snip-snip-snip) Was trying to find out how far plane was tracked for

---

Personally I have no intellectual hang-up to consider that the "new" NORAD have become a true sieve since its house-moving. But I don't think that this opinion will be understood at its right value on this side of the Atlantic...

Then I prefer to leave with Vanaj the time to answer seriously your question not to crush his post...

---

Regards Penguin, try to find a WIFI. Respect too ya!

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Yes, that would be a good observation...the temp and dew point were close causing the low cloud cover and he was not able to take off until there was a break in the clouds.

From that we can assume he was not Instrument rated or Instrument current or the plane was not certified for IFR flight.

---

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Yes, that would be a good observation...the temp and dew point were close causing the low cloud cover and he was not able to take off until there was a break in the clouds.

From that we can assume he was not Instrument rated or Instrument current or the plane was not certified for IFR flight.

---

Also note that in many of the valleys with the temp dew point that close and the humidity rather high, along with the presence of large bodies of water along the way, it would be safe to assume some/many of the valleys he might have flown before would be covered with fog possibly right down to the deck(ground).

It is very to find out some of this information as the weather reports in the part of the country are far between and weather can change quickly in the north country.

---

Check. Thanks a lot Vanaj.
Oops, 04:05, European catnap...

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

That plague, (probably the same one that took out LJeanL recently) came to Kentucky on December 28th and had the courtesy to visit me personally. I was mostly out of commission. Better now, but LJeanL, pass the ginger ale and soda crackers please.

Regarding the questions for the Boychuk family, I received the following email reply from Jon Boychuk. When, in a private message to a fellow searcher about something else, I mentioned that I had received this email and it was suggested I get Jon's okay before posting the message. That was a good idea, so I did and Jon Boychuk replied this evening saying it was okay to do so.



Sent: Saturday, December 29, 2007 8:16 PM
Subject: RE: Details of Ron's flight


Thank you again for all your efforts, I can't possibly tell you how much this means to our family. As per your questions, I will try to get a contact # for you .... also; he took off from Revelstoke at approx. 14:30 Pacific time planning to take the VFR route to Qualicomm. The last visual sighting was at revelstoke heading west towards 3 valley gap however in our efforts to contact people we have two possible witness's in lytton claiming they saw that airplane heading south low level over the fraser river at approx. 17:00-17:30 Pacific. The military was going off a radar hit close to spences bridge takin by a U.S. border patrol Aircraft. We believe that he usually took the VFR route.
I will forward you a contact # ASAP, and again we thank you with all our hearts,
Sincerely,
Jon Boychuk

---

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

I have been looking at this for a while tonight trying to make sense of what Boychuk was seeing and what he was trying to do. I have flown the 172 on numerous cross country flights and it is an easy airplane to fly and navigate in VFR conditions.

The email from Jon only adds to my confusion about this flight. The statement that he was possibly seen flying low level near Lytton over the Fraser river heading south could mean any number of things. Low level in an ambiguous term and could mean anything from 50 ft AGL (above ground level) to 500 ft AGL or something above that.

Heading south at that point runs counter to the theory that he was making a direct flight to his destination because his approximate heading would have to be about 240-250 degrees magnetic, not 180 degrees. Heading south could indicate that he was going to follow highway #1. Would this be the VFR route that Jon is referring ?

When Jon says “the military was going off a radar hit near Spense Bridge,” is this the antecedent to the purported position report over Spense Bridge? “We believe that he usually took the VFR route”. What exactly is the usual VFR route?

---

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

I have been looking at this for a while tonight trying to make sense of what Boychuk was seeing and what he was trying to do. I have flown the 172 on numerous cross country flights and it is an easy airplane to fly and navigate in VFR conditions.

The email from Jon only adds to my confusion about this flight. The statement that he was possibly seen flying low level near Lytton over the Fraser river heading south could mean any number of things. Low level in an ambiguous term and could mean anything from 50 ft AGL (above ground level) to 500 ft AGL or something above that.

Heading south at that point runs counter to the theory that he was making a direct flight to his destination because his approximate heading would have to be about 240-250 degrees magnetic, not 180 degrees. Heading south could indicate that he was going to follow highway #1. Would this be the VFR route that Jon is referring ?

When Jon says “the military was going off a radar hit near Spense Bridge,” is this the antecedent to the purported position report over Spense Bridge? “We believe that he usually took the VFR route”. What exactly is the usual VFR route?

---

I don't know much about flying and there are reasons why I'm letting Supersquint and Greg head up intel and information gathering.

But to me if I look at this search effort in its entirety, I have to think that there must be reasons why Ron Boychuk (and Steve Fossett for that matter) have not been found despite MASSIVE search efforts. What seems to be most logical to me is that the pilot did something unexpected and that the search teams were looking in totally the wrong area. If the SAR team had the radar track and other information that lead them to believe that Ron Boychuk had passed by Spense Bridge, I would have to assume that they dedicated a lot of resources to the area of the last known reports and radar track.

What Greg will have to answer for us is how reliable the basic information we are working with is. Could another plane and another pilot's communication gotten confused for Ron Boychuk? I don't know the answer to any of this and am waiting for what Greg determines.

My point is that if a massive search effort is undertaken and the pilot is not found, then why was this? Greg's answers will be very important, to our greater understanding of what happened, but if we are working with the same information that the search team is working with we could be drawn to the same conclusions as them. Maybe the conclusions are incorrect based simply on the fact that they have not yielded the location of Ron Boychuk's plane. Maybe unorthodox search methods are required and/or maybe we just have to do a brute force imagery review of the entire possible flight area (even those areas that don't seem probable).

Again I don't have any answers, I'm just pondering questions out loud while I wake up and get my day started.

---

Those are very good questions and we can speculate until the cows come home and may never know what Boychuk’s actual flight path was. Deviation in a flight path is usually the result of some unforeseen factor such as weather, fuel consumption, time of day and so on.

Looking at the Boychuk family web page map of the search area indicates that the Highway one route has been searched as well as to the north and west of Lytton. What is absent on that map is the area west of Revelstoke. Ron’s statement that his dad was last seen “heading west from Revelstoke toward 3 valley gap" is revealing because apparently in the minds of the Boychuk family that very well could be his last know position. That fact is probably the reason that they consider the area west of Revelstoke to be an area that we should examine thoroughly and I can see the logic in that.

So we continue the search.

Post Extras:

Quote:

---

Looking at the Boychuk family web page map of the search area indicates that the Highway one route has been searched as well as to the north and west of Lytton. What is absent on that map is the area west of Revelstoke. Ron’s statement that his dad was last seen “heading west from Revelstoke toward 3 valley gap" is revealing because apparently in the minds of the Boychuk family that very well could be his last know position. That fact is probably the reason that they consider the area west of Revelstoke to be an area that we should examine thoroughly and I can see the logic in that.

---

Post Extras: