vanaj
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 1418
Loc: Reno, NV
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Quote:
vanaj,
is there, or could there be anything to be learnt from Rons first leg from Springbank to Revelstoke ?
Departure time would give us some idea of how long it took to get to Revelstoke.
And if we can not determine if a flight plan was submitted, someone on the ground there may have been talking to him,,,(refueler etc, ) before he departed ?
It seems to me that that particular leg was also over some very remote and rough terrain, that doesn't lend itself to IFR at all.
If he flew this direct, it indicates to me that he is capable and confident enough to plan the second leg as a direct route as well, specially considering the available time he had to get to Qualicum before sunset.
Unless he was experiencing fuel consumption problems, or had strong head winds, the 172 would have definitely had the endurance to do it.
With the lack of official information and lack of confirmation as to news reports, I am finding myself starting to be left with the option of making assumptions.
The pic of his plane is the only clue so far as to what his plane was equipped with.
any comments ?
If we had take off times and landing times we could get a accurate ground speed and make some assumptions from there..also with the take off time from the refueling stop and the time reported over the Bridge we could verify the ground speed and get a good idea of any winds. I'd be willing to bet big that the SAR team talked to everyone at the last landing field and has some good info..maybe a little help from Ron's family would help us with facts and getting a more narrow window into the search area.
One of the only reasons to do a 180 and backtrack is weather...you would have a pretty good idea of the weather behind you and it is a good safe out to retreat in the face of bad weather. Should this have happened I would expect Ron to have radioed his position and intentions. Now what usually happens is flying into a lowering ceiling and pressing on...this usually results in scud running then CFIT.(Continued Flight Into Terrain) unless they are very lucky...but low clouds/fog usually get heavier/thicker the closer you get to the ocean. I hope that because he had done this route many times he didn't get over confident and press on into the above situation...the average life span of a non instrument rated pilot when entering clouds is only about 45 seconds before vertigo sets in and loss of control...sad but very true...
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"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts." - Abraham Lincoln
Edited by vanaj (12/27/07 10:30 PM)
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MedicPilot
Tourist
Reged: 12/27/07
Posts: 2
Loc: Sherwood, OR
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Quote:
It seems to me that that particular leg was also over some very remote and rough terrain, that doesn't lend itself to IFR at all.
If he flew this direct, it indicates to me that he is capable and confident enough to plan the second leg as a direct route as well, specially considering the available time he had to get to Qualicum before sunset.
I'm looking at my Jeppesen online flight planner right now, and between Revelstoke (CYRV) and Qualicum Beach (CAT4) there are a lot of IFR airways that one could file.
One thing that I do notice, if I plan a direct route between those two points, is that the pilot would have to cross a lot of high terrain. Some of it is pushing close to 8000 feet, with most of it ranging betwen 5000-6500 feet. For a Cessna 172, which is not pressurized, that doesn't leave a lot of airspace betwen the ground and the ceiling of of that aircraft.
Where am I going with all this? Well, if a VFR flight plan is required, as has been shown by the regulations that were posted, then we should be able to have a clear idea of at least what was his intended routing.
Now, there are plenty of reasons to deviate from your filed flight plan. Looking at the terrain depicted on the VFR chart, a pilot could be tempted to try and fly along one of the several valleys or canyons that he had to cross in order to escape weather. If that's the case, he could be literally anywhere. And if it was getting dark... err, well, this pilot is shuddering at the thought.
OK, so if I were to put myself in his shoes, where would I go if I had to divert to another location? Let's assume he made it to Salmon Arm. Looking at the terrain and the available airports, I have to tell you that Kelowna (CYLW) is looking pretty darn good. And it is a tower controlled field to boot!
Now, here's the rub. Along that new routing to Kelowna he only needs to follow this incredibly long lake (I think it is Lake Okanagan). Seems simple except that there are plenty of visual illusions that are created from the shoreline that can cause a pilot to crash into terrain, or even the lake itself, if he isn't careful.
I'm not a betting man, but I wonder if our plane isn't in the water or the rising terrain surounding the lake.
Hmmmm...
Greg
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rpmckinley
Explorer
Reged: 09/10/07
Posts: 157
Loc: Texas, USA
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Kelowana, Interesting, But if he reported that he was over Spences Bridge and then decided to divert because of weather Kelowana is too far south and east. That's why I said Merritt. There is a good highway from Spences Bridge to Merritt, Route 8.
Take a look at my previous posts near the end of our earlier forum board on Steve Fossett. I posted a pretty thorough analysis of this same situation.
Link http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/1056636/page/0/fpart/71/vc/1
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blue_penguin
Searcher
Reged: 10/02/07
Posts: 392
Loc: France
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Please refer to Vanaj's post, here:
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showthreaded.php/Cat/0/Number/1084701/page/0/vc/1
Regards 
Edited by blue_penguin (12/31/07 04:46 PM)
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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As Blue Penguin so colorfully stated it, we can not be sure of what is rumint and what is factual info in regards to reported locations.
The only piece of what I would consider to be factual information I have at this time is what I posted from my source who said that the imagery we are working with right now is one of five locations that the Boychuk FAMILY felt were the most promising search areas and wanted to focus on. Nobody has a greater stake in finding Ron than his family does. If they felt based on their work with SAR teams that the location we are searching is one of their locations of high interest. This is good enough for me.
Yes it would be good to try to weed out the rumors from the facts, but we shouldn't drive ourselves nuts with media reports. At this point in time, the reality is that all we can search is the imagery that is provided to us and new imagery can not be captured until the snow melts.
As has been said, for now we work with what we have and work on developing our systems for future searches. In time we will have processes in place to make our search efforts more efficient and effective, but we have to start somewhere as frustrating as that may be.
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InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
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fishcat
Searcher
Reged: 10/04/07
Posts: 175
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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We have now surpassed 600 members on InternetSAR.org. At this rate we could pass 800 members before tomorrow. 
I also just completed an interview with "General Aviation News" so that should bring a lot more aviation types into our ranks over the coming days. This is a very good development.
Professional imagery analysts wanted
The amount of reports that need to be evaluated is rapidly growing. As dedicated as our core group of report evaluators are, I don't think they will be able to keep up with the flood of reports we will be getting as our membership grows. If you are a professional imagery analyst (retired or active, military or civilian) and would be willing to volunteer your skills to help evaluate imagery reports please contact me with your background and qualifications.
At this moment in time we have around two dozen reports to be evaluated for the Ron Boychuk search and two dozen reports to be evaluated for the Steve Fossett search. This number seems to be holding steady, which means evaluations are keeping up with reports, but as our numbers grow we will start to lose ground without more evaluators.
I also want to make sure that we have enough evaluators that no one gets burned out from having evaluated too many reports.
Please do not contact search teams directly on our behalf to get information
I know that there is a really great desire to get factual information. BUT PLEASE do not go to search teams on your own. We need to keep all requests for information through established channels so that we don't become a hindrance to search operations. I have one point of contact with the Boychuk search team for imagery related issues and we are establishing a SINGLE point of contact to be our official liaison with the the Boychuk search team for all other information requests. This individual knows people on the official Boychuk team personally and has decades of experience with SAR.
If these efforts are to be successful and we are to be an aid to search efforts we must work in an organized fashion. This includes who makes contact with search teams.
What we are doing could change SAR forever as long as we don't overwhelm SAR teams with our enthusiasm.
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InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
Edited by danescombe (12/28/07 11:35 PM)
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vanaj
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 1418
Loc: Reno, NV
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Quote:
Quote:
"The last radar contact with the plane was near Lytton in the Fraser Valley", said Searchmaster Capt. Brad White (CASARA). 2nd Lieut. Alex Cadieux, a spokesman for the Comox 19 Wing, said "Boychuk’s last known radio transmission was from over Spence’s Bridge". Captain Cheryl Condly (19 Wing Public Affairs Officer) said "a lone radar hit outside of Lytton" remains their strongest lead, though crews "have ***yet to confirm*** if the contact was Boychuk."
Please excuse my presumptuous attitude....
You pilots and penguin need to set up a direct communication line wih one of the search-leader people at CASARA. This should be done for any of these searches. I'll bet they can provide definitive info on Boychuk's flight. There are a number of telephone numbers and email addresses that pop up with a Google search of CASARA + <search leader name>. You'all should PM each other and decide which of you is to do the contacting, then contact them and get the straight dope. I expect a pilot would be the best choice since this would give you more credibiltiy. Doing this this may end some of the speculation. It would also be beneficial if one of you had a contact with the Boychuk family. I know Ken communicates with them about imagery, but Ken is not a pilot and he is really busy.
No_Stranger suggested setting up a G-Talk account which could provide you all with a private forum.
I had emailed the Boychuk family requesting some flight info and a contact address for a CASARA contact but got no reply (I may have been rude because I emailed it on Christmas day evening). Also, they may have been swamped because this occurred at the same time as the recent publicity.
I think we do need a direct line of communication with the search team and REAL FACTS....if the Family wants/asked for our help they might want to get that door open to the SAR team to get this information and we need to start with more than hunches...I have no problem taking the lead on this if needed...but without facts to start with we might as well look anywhere...I know we need to prove the system but we can't do that with rumors/unconfirmed reports and images of a search area that is not near the route/sightings/position reports all we can get from that is negative press...
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"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts." - Abraham Lincoln
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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Quote:
No_Stranger suggested setting up a G-Talk account which could provide you all with a private forum.
I am not familiar with this. Please tell me more we do need a private forum for organizing matters. I want to stay as open and transparent as possible, I also realize the need for a concise group of people to help give direction. Our organizing efforts are simply growing beyond the scale of these discussion threads.
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InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
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tekgergedan
Master Guide
Reged: 09/25/05
Posts: 7617
Loc: Turkey GMT+2
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You may also exploit the potentials of GE-Sharing:
http://server.divis-hagen.de/ge/index.php?page=start
More info in Ogle-Earth:
http://www.ogleearth.com/2007/04/ge_sharing_cros.html
Or there was a tool created by a member which works via G-Talk:
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php?Number=900733
You may already know. Just to add to no_stranger's...
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...::: | | | Install 4.3 and be aware you can switch back | | | :::...
...::: | | | what you are is what you eat and what you think | | | :::...
...::: | | | if you want to get something, first look and ask for its very details | | | :::...
Edited by tekgergedan (12/28/07 11:00 AM)
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