blue_penguin
Searcher
Reged: 10/02/07
Posts: 392
Loc: France
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Please refer to Vanaj's post, here:
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showthreaded.php/Cat/0/Number/1084701/page/0/vc/1
Edited by blue_penguin (12/31/07 04:48 PM)
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KenBarbalace
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Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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Quote:
 I think I have not been very clear (once again... ): this was not a quick and dirty supposition, this was an analysis of the rumint which was emitted on the "Spences Bridge" case. To be more precise: for me, even if this radar bleep is one day officially confirmed as a possible track, it still won't match.
To my knowledge, at this time we don't have at our disposal any intermediate "report" (e.g. media squeak) *between* Revelstoke and Lytton. This means that Ron Boychuk has not been sighted, did not make any radio contact, was not "caught" by any radar between Revelstoke and this very far and mostly hypothetical "lone radar hit outside of Lytton". This is too much.
I think that the most credible option is that Ron Boychuk never enter in any of the aerial spaces of any aerodromes (Salmon Arm, Kamloops, Kelowna, Merrit) within the "logical" or "possible" route for his final destination.
For me it means that he is still in the 50 kilometers around his last reported position: Revelstoke, and in the better case: on the route for Salmon Arm.
And (hurrah, these things happen... ) this time I think that our imagery is within the right area...
Okay there you have it folks. If Mr. Grumpy... er I mean Blue Penguin is satisfied that we are working with imagery from the right area, AND this is where the Boychuk family thinks is the most probable location then I'd say we are working with imagery from the best possible location. After all Blue Penguin is most (in his own words) rude and presumptuous guy of our "bunch of armchairs". If he is in agreement with where a search team is having us look (a first that I have observed) that carries a lot of weight with me. 
Blue Penguin may be "rude and presumptuous" but he also has very sound sense of reasoning. We just have to give him slack for being French.
-------------------- InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
Edited by KenBarbalace (12/28/07 11:37 AM)
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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I have just updated the initial post to this thread with links to Blue Penguin's two posts analyzing what is known. I have also updated it with the other information that I have previously posted.
-------------------- InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
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Mooseguides
Searcher
Reged: 12/28/07
Posts: 54
Loc: Stephenville , Newfoundland
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Ken, As a 30 year pilot and trained search co-ordinator with Casara and having participated in many real searches I have to throw in my 2 cents worth before this very worthwhile endeavor of yours gets too big to handle and please try to understand where I'm coming from with my comments but been there, done that !
We need facts to work with, if we don't have them, then get them, JRCC will have them for sure.
People have to realize this is real world stuff we are doing and not just someones excuse to chit chat about aviation stuff as our goal is to return someones loved ones to them even if they broke every damm air reg thats out there they are still missing.
Many search objects are found outside the search area so sometimes we have to think outside the box if you know what I mean.
We must really be prudent when searching as the smallest clue can open the biggest door and thats what this is all about.
Thanks and keep up the good work..........AL
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LJeanL
Searcher
Reged: 10/07/07
Posts: 186
Loc: Maine
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Quote:
Folks we have passed an important milestone. We now have over 400 members on InternetSAR.org this is up from 40 members yesterday morning. How's that for growth?
I wonder if all these new members signed up just to check out the process and once their curiosity is satisfied, they won't continue participating. Ken, in case you have a few minutes you don't know what to do with , maybe you could get us some statistics of how many of the new members are actually actively searching.
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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Quote:
We need facts to work with, if we don't have them, then get them, JRCC will have them for sure.
This is the problem, people are ignoring what I have said. The single most important fact we have is that there are five locations of interest to the Ron Boychuk search team and that the imagery we are working on is the first location of interest to them. This is the most important fact and it comes to me directly from my contact with the team.
What everyone is doing here is using media reports to second guess what decisions the Ron Boychuk team has made. None of those media reports matter at all. They are rumors and second hand information at best.
We need to trust that when the Ron Boychuk search team requested DigitalGlobe to capture imagery for them that they selected what they believed to be the most promising search locations based on all of their analysis. I really don't see a need to second guess their decisions. They have told me that based on their analysis the imagery they asked us to review is of the greatest interest to them. This should be good enough for all of us.
All of the chatter in this thread about what is fact and what isn't is nothing more than second guessing. Even Blue Penguin, who is one of the leading contrarians in these threads, has come to the conclusion that indeed the imagery the Boychuk search team asked us to review is probably the most promising imagery.
What more do we really need to know? What could we actually do with different information? We can't do anything differently because the imagery we have is the imagery we have AND we can't get new imagery until spring when the snow melts in the spring.
Going to the search team and interrogating them for facts would waste their time because it won't change what we are doing because we can't do anything differently.
In the future we may have a seat at the table during the decision making process of where and how imagery will be captured, but even then it won't be an open free for all discussion. It will be a small team of SAR professionals who will help provide advice. In the end it will still be up to the SAR team we are working with to make the final determination of how and where imagery will be captured. We need to trust that search teams have every incentive to choose the best possible areas for imagery and that they know what they are doing. After all, in many cases like with the Ron Boychuk search the decisions are being made by SAR professionals.
Remember our mission is not to replace SAR teams. Our mission is to assist them. This means we need to trust the decisions they make and provide them with the assistance they ask for without second guessing them to death as is happening in this thread.
If you were in the position of Ron Boychuk's family, who would you want to make the decisions about where to search: the trained SAR team you are working with or a bunch of people on some forum you don't know?
-------------------- InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
Edited by KenBarbalace (12/28/07 02:44 PM)
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KenBarbalace
Searcher
Reged: 09/27/07
Posts: 609
Loc: Portland Maine
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Quote:
Quote:
Folks we have passed an important milestone. We now have over 400 members on InternetSAR.org this is up from 40 members yesterday morning. How's that for growth?
I wonder if all these new members signed up just to check out the process and once their curiosity is satisfied, they won't continue participating. Ken, in case you have a few minutes you don't know what to do with , maybe you could get us some statistics of how many of the new members are actually actively searching.
Without looking if I were to wager, I'd say that for every ten people who sign up, only a few would stick around for the long haul. This is the nature of all volunteer efforts. The thing is the core group that has helped get InterentSAR.org off the ground is that 1% of volunteers who were left over from the Steve Fossett search.
-------------------- InternetSAR.org: Volunteers collaboratively analyzing aerial and satellite imagery to assist in search and rescue efforts.
DISCUSS ACTIVE SEARCHES: Ron Boychuk in British Columbia, Canada & Steve Fossett in Nevada, USA
My blog posts on my MTurk search experience:
Using the Internet to Revolutionize Search and Rescue
Internet search for Steve Fossett eight weeks later
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vanaj
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 1418
Loc: Reno, NV
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Quote:
Remember our mission is not to replace SAR teams. Our mission is to assist them. This means we need to trust the decisions they make and provide them with the assistance they ask for without second guessing them to death as is happening in this thread.
If you were in the position of Ron Boychuk's family, who would you want to make the decisions about where to search: the trained SAR team you are working with or a bunch of people on some forum you don't know?
OK...these are the same SAR team members that reported Ron had radioed a position report(A position report that was most likely ON TAPE) south of the Bridge....some ~150 miles to the west of were THEY/US are searching ??? something is really starting to sound very familiar and starting to stink...either we're or the media is getting a load of "Bravo Sierra"
InternerSAR.org was started as a way people could view images and report possible site and get valuable feedback...without this people feel like mushrooms and will leave the effort...well at this point I think with all the rumors maybe someone from the SAR team should step in here and fill us with facts...after all what do they have to loose...there was probably 10 times the area covered online that in the air by searchers in the Fossett search...I'll bet the SAR team looking for Ron would like that help also..and we ask so little in return....just give us the facts...it's not like the area has to be secured because Ron is the Prime Minister of Canada...
-------------------- "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts." - Abraham Lincoln
Edited by vanaj (12/28/07 05:27 PM)
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balmerbay
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 261
Loc: Chesapeake Bay
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Quote:
Quote:
Remember our mission is <snip snip>
About time you dusted off those boots and put them to use.
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vanaj
Searcher
Reged: 09/12/07
Posts: 1418
Loc: Reno, NV
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Remember our mission is <snip snip>
About time you dusted off those boots and put them to use.
Getting more mellow in my years...
-------------------- "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts." - Abraham Lincoln
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