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HillModerator
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Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating
      #1139031 - 03/25/08 08:02 PM

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The largest ice shelf on the Antarctic Penninsula is disintegrating further by calving a huge iceburg. The dimensions of the iceburg are about 25 mi. by 1.5 mi. (41 kilometers by 2.5 kilometers).

Source
Quote:

A thin strip of ice, just 6 kilometres wide, is all that is holding back the collapse of a huge ice shelf in Antarctica, according to glaciologists.

The Wilkins ice shelf – previously some 16,000 square kilometres in area – has been disintegrating fast. On 28 February, an iceberg 41 km long and 2.5 km wide broke off the ice shelf. This triggered the runaway disintegration of a further 570 square kilometres of ice.

"I would be very surprised if it survives more than a couple more melt seasons," says Ted Scambos of the University of Colorado, US.

Other researchers, including David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey, believe it could be gone within weeks. "The ice shelf is hanging by a thread – we'll know in the next few days or weeks what its fate will be," he says.



You can read more about it here.

Video of the ice shelf.

EDIT: I have replaced my original overlay with a series of four overlays provided by NASA Earth Observatory. The series shows how dramatic the breakup has been. Thanks for the link blt and for the suggestion mspelto

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Pragueimp
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1139272 - 03/26/08 07:26 AM

Thanks Hill
Just read about this on the BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7313264.stm

Alas, we can sit and watch our planet fall apart on GE!

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HillModerator
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Pragueimp]
      #1139674 - 03/26/08 10:38 PM

Here is a report of earlier stages of the break-up in 1998.

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"Eternity is a very long time, especially towards the end" Stephen Hawking (quoting Woody Allen)
"There are all kinds of interesting questions that come from a knowledge of science, which only adds to the excitement and mystery and awe of a flower." Richard Feynman
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saellis
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1140028 - 03/27/08 11:49 AM

Great job with the Overlay. Those things are tough at such an extreme latitude. It's curious that this event hasn't been added to the National Ice Center's Antarctic Iceberg Tracking Webpage yet. It seems to me that this should qualify as the biggest Quadrant 'A' iceberg to date.

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Ogle_Earth
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1140191 - 03/27/08 05:23 PM

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Here is a composite of that image and a higher resolution closeup. Both are slightly more accurately positioned. Enjoy

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blt
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1141416 - 03/29/08 05:54 PM

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A bit more of the story on the Wilkins breakup from the BAS

Quote:

Glaciologist Ted Scambos from the University of Colorado alerted colleagues Professor David Vaughan and Andrew Fleming of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) that the ice shelf looked at risk. After checking daily satellite pictures, BAS sent a Twin Otter aircraft on a reconnaissance mission to check out the extent of the breakout.




This is what they saw


Quote:

"I've never seen anything like this before – it was awesome. We flew along the main crack and observed the sheer scale of movement from the breakage. Big hefty chunks of ice, the size of small houses, look as though they've been thrown around like rubble – it's like an explosion."




Hi Res- Wilikins Breaking Up
Hi Res- Wilkins from Twin Otter

The scene was also photographed by Taiwan’s Formosat-2 satellite.

Hi Res - Wilkins from Formosat 2

And for a bonus, while I was looking for these, pics I noticed that the NASA Earth Observatory is way ahead of us. Check out the attached KMZ file from NASA. KMZ file of the ice shelf disintegrating suitable for use with Google Earth showing the collapse using 4 dated A 250-meter-resolution overlays.

Edited by blt (04/01/08 10:45 PM)


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mspelto
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Ogle_Earth]
      #1141636 - 03/30/08 05:15 AM

Charcot island and Latady Island are key pinning points for the ice shelf on its west facing front. As you can imagine a large floating shelf of ice is not as stable without such bedrock pinning points either on the lateral margin or beneath the ice sheet. As the ice shelf thins do to melting, its contact with the pinning points weakens, this enables calving, which further weakens the connection at the pinning points. This ice shelf is 6 degrees south of the Larsen B Ice Shelf and much more in line with the latitude of other large ice shelves of the main Antatrctic Ice Sheet, it is also quite close to Pine Island and Thwaites glacier which have also experienced greater retreat, and faster flow of late. The demise of the ice sheet was predicted long ago by the British Antarctic Survey because of its tenusous connection with the pinning points. The open water black right to the ice shelf front is not a good sign for the iceshelf either. I would suggest that one of the two original posts with kml files be updated to include a path of the ice front for both moments in time.

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HillModerator
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: blt]
      #1142140 - 03/30/08 10:37 PM

Thanks to all who have provided additional material and links. Lately I have read in several sources that the break-up may have stopped for this year as Austral Winter approaches and freezing superceeds melting. But whether this is the case or not, it seems likely that the break-up will continue, if not now, then next summer. I've edited the initial post to include a NASA Earth Observatory folder which includes overlays detailing the break-up.

CNN report on the biological changes brought about by disappearance of ice shelves.

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"Eternity is a very long time, especially towards the end" Stephen Hawking (quoting Woody Allen)
"There are all kinds of interesting questions that come from a knowledge of science, which only adds to the excitement and mystery and awe of a flower." Richard Feynman
Iraq war and occupation costs

Edited by Hill (03/30/08 10:39 PM)


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saellis
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: blt]
      #1142429 - 03/31/08 12:17 PM

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blt's file with time stamps for animation

file corrected to give equal time to each frame

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Edited by saellis (03/31/08 02:34 PM)


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satcom15
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: saellis]
      #1143216 - 04/01/08 06:52 PM

The thing that amazed me about this and the Larson B iceshelf break up of a couple of years ago is the speed at which it happened. It's like throwing a rock at a piece of glass. They both just shattered. What's next? The Ronne or Ross Sea Ice shelfs? If so, its Katy bar the door. No such thing as global warming? Indeed. Doubters and those that attempt to forestall meaningful action on the problem should hang their heads in shame. Their actions place the planet and humanity at grave risk.

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blt
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1143284 - 04/01/08 11:02 PM

I was looking at the high res images of the breakup and noticed something I've always wanted to see. Which is what does the iceberg look line under the under the sea?



Take a look at the labeled iceberg. About 90% of it is blue and 10% is white. I'm speculating that its a slice of the tabular icesheet that has flipped on its side exposing the ice normally below sealevel. I expect that the blue color may mark the region previously below seawater. If the floating bergs are 25 m high, the depth below sea level would be about 200m making the whole berg about 225 m thick.


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Pragueimp
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: blt]
      #1143909 - 04/03/08 02:01 AM

Well spotted blt! That is really fascinating.
So, how much of the iceberg is now underwater?! Still 200m? And why did it flip on it's side? It can't have been top heavy? Some interesting physics there...

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satcom15
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: blt]
      #1144945 - 04/04/08 06:52 PM

Quote:

I was looking at the high res images of the breakup and noticed something I've always wanted to see. Which is what does the iceberg look line under the under the sea?



Take a look at the labeled iceberg. About 90% of it is blue and 10% is white. I'm speculating that its a slice of the tabular icesheet that has flipped on its side exposing the ice normally below sealevel. I expect that the blue color may mark the region previously below seawater. If the floating bergs are 25 m high, the depth below sea level would be about 200m making the whole berg about 225 m thick.




If this is true, the edges of the white ice (above water part) of the ice berg on the right don't seem to match the edges of the icerberg on the left. Could the iceberg calved from the ice sheet in the foreground, flipped on its side, then rotated 90 degrees? At least from the perspective of the image this seems like it might have happened. I agree the blue of the ice could have been the sub water ice. And the proportions of Above to Below water ice look reasonable. Also the iceberg on the left does not have the same look to it as the one on the right and its top surface is higher. Sure seems plausible doesn't it. Interesting. Regardless, that the ice sheet shattered as it did is still pretty amazing.

Cheers


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blt
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating (again) [Re: Hill]
      #1188610 - 06/15/08 12:00 PM

The Wilkins Ice Shelf continues to disintegrate (from Science News)
Quote:

Wilkins Ice Shelf has experienced further break-up with an area of about 160 km² breaking off from 30 May to 31 May 2008.
Wilkins Ice Shelf, a broad plate of floating ice south of South America on the Antarctic Peninsula, is connected to two islands, Charcot and Latady. In February 2008, an area of about 400 km² broke off from the ice shelf, narrowing the connection down to a 6 km strip; this latest event in May has further reduced the strip to just 2.7 km. ...
According to Dr Matthias Braun from the Center for Remote Sensing of Land Surfaces, Bonn University, and Dr Angelika Humbert from the Institute of Geophysics, Münster University, who have been investigating the dynamics of Wilkins Ice Shelf for months, this break-up has not yet finished. "The remaining plate has an arched fracture at its narrowest position, making it very likely that the connection will break completely in the coming days," Braun and Humbert said.





You can read more in a new article by Mauri S Pelto on the break-up of Antarctic Ice Shelves on Real Climate

June 9, 2008


March 2008


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HillModerator
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating (again) [Re: blt]
      #1189817 - 06/17/08 12:45 PM

National Geographic has an animated view of the break-up and more information here.



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"Eternity is a very long time, especially towards the end" Stephen Hawking (quoting Woody Allen)
"There are all kinds of interesting questions that come from a knowledge of science, which only adds to the excitement and mystery and awe of a flower." Richard Feynman
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kakasucai
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1190100 - 06/18/08 02:21 AM

we should think about our world

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HillModerator
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating (again) [Re: Hill]
      #1202735 - 07/11/08 07:48 PM

The ice shelf continues to break up, even in austral mid-winter:

Quote:

10 July 2008
The Wilkins Ice Shelf is experiencing further disintegration that is threatening the collapse of the ice bridge connecting the shelf to Charcot Island. Since the connection to the island in the image centre helps to stabilise the ice shelf, it is likely the break-up of the bridge will put the remainder of the ice shelf at risk.

This animation, comprised of images acquired by Envisat’s Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) between 30 May and 9 July 2008, shows the break-up event which began on the east (right) rather than the on west (left) like the previous event that occurred last month. By 8 July, a fracture that could open the ice bridge was visible.

According to the image acquired on 7 July 2008, Dr Matthias Braun from the Center for Remote Sensing of Land Surfaces at Bonn University estimates the area lost on the Wilkins Ice Shelf during this break-up event is about 1350 km² with a rough estimate of 500 to 700 km² in addition being lost if the bridge to Charcot Island collapses.

This break-up is puzzling to scientists because it has occurred in the Southern Hemispheric winter and does not have characteristics similar to two earlier events that occurred in 2008, which were comparable to the break-up of the Larsen-A and -B ice shelves.






The full story is here at the European Space Agency website.

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"Eternity is a very long time, especially towards the end" Stephen Hawking (quoting Woody Allen)
"There are all kinds of interesting questions that come from a knowledge of science, which only adds to the excitement and mystery and awe of a flower." Richard Feynman
Iraq war and occupation costs


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satcom15
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: kakasucai]
      #1203887 - 07/13/08 06:47 PM

The speed and continued breakup of Wilkins Ice shelf even during the winter is astounding. Thanks for the posts Hill. I wonder, if arctic and antarctic ice melting/disintegrating are accelerating seems like this would result in more open water with less reflection of solar radiation in the polar regions. By themselves, events such as the Wilkens and Larson iceshelf losses of solar radiation reflectance are fairly small in scale. However, do they have a small but postive feedback, growing effect over time? If there is more solar radiation absorbed and reemitted by open water, what does that mean for polar and eventually global temperatures? Will cloud cover increase over the polar regions because of higher atmospheric moisture content? Will the break-up of the iceshelf permit acceleration of antarctic icestreams and thus increases of fresh water in the ocean? What does that mean with respect to ocean salinity and water density in those regions? Do or can these events have consequences with respect to global ocean currents? What is happening under the West Antarctic Ice sheet? Is there erosion of the ice by underlying water? So many questions with no clear cut answers. My fear is that we have embarked on a human caused "experiment" in climate change with no desirable outcome.

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HillModerator
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: satcom15]
      #1204368 - 07/14/08 01:18 PM

Various reports I've read speak of varied responses to open ocean vs. ice cover. In the North polar region for instance, open ocean will likely result in more precipitation in that area. Several studies point to a likelihood of the greater flow southward of cold fresher water in the vicinity of Greenland stopping the Gulf Stream's flow and thus its moderating influence on European climate. The British Isles, sitting at the same latitude as southern/central Canada may end up with a climate approximating.

Global warming is the prognosis for the Earth as a whole, but some localities may actually end up colder, at least initially.

Here is one report from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution that is a bout 5 years old. Things are progressing much faster than was though possible even 5 years ago. Illustrations and captions are from the report.


THE GLOBAL OCEAN CONVEYOR—The global ocean circulation system, often called the Ocean Conveyor, transports heat throughout the planet. White sections represent warm surface currents. Purple sections represent deep cold currents. (Illustration by Jayne Doucette, WHOI)


DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC—Subpolar seas bordering the North Atlantic have become noticeably less salty since the mid-1960s, especially in the last decade. This is the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments. This has resulted in a freshening of the deep ocean in the North Atlantic, which in the past disrupted the Ocean Conveyor and caused abrupt climate changes. (B. Dickson, et. al., in Nature, April 2002)

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"Eternity is a very long time, especially towards the end" Stephen Hawking (quoting Woody Allen)
"There are all kinds of interesting questions that come from a knowledge of science, which only adds to the excitement and mystery and awe of a flower." Richard Feynman
Iraq war and occupation costs


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ysb45
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: satcom15]
      #1206435 - 07/18/08 07:37 AM

Who Cares - there i8s no such thing as global warming

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HillModerator
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: ysb45]
      #1206489 - 07/18/08 09:31 AM

You may want to catch up or your reading and research. Start here at http://www.climatescience.gov/

From that site you can read the following:

Quote:

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Once considered a problem mainly for the future, climate change is now upon us. People are at the heart of this problem: we are causing it, and we are being affected by it. The rapid onset of many aspects of climate change highlights the urgency of confronting this challenge without further delay. The choices that we make now will influence current and future emissions of heat-trapping gases, and can help to reduce future warming. Likewise, our decisions on whether and how to adapt to the degree of warming that is already inevitable can help us reduce the impacts of future warming.

1. Human-induced climate change and its impacts are apparent now throughout the United States. Global warming is unequivocal and is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases and other pollutants. [This actually is technically an error, if their baseline is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports from last year. They assert that humans are the dominant warming influence since 1950 with greater than 90 percent confidence, which is different than the certainty here. (UPDATE 7/18: Susan Hassol helpfully pointed out that the IPCC’s “very likely” confidence level is “greater than 90 percent.”)] Observed changes in the United States include temperature increases, sea-level rise, increased heavy downpours, rapidly retreating glaciers, regional droughts, substantial changes in sensitive wildlife, earlier snowmelt, and altered timing and amount of river flows. Impacts of these changes are apparent in many facets of society including health, water, food, energy, and quality of life.

2. Many climatic changes are occurring faster than projected even a few years ago. Global emissions of heat-trapping gases are now increasing even more rapidly than the highest emissions scenario scientists have been analyzing. Arctic sea ice and the large ice sheets on Greenland and parts of Antarctica are melting faster than expected.




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"Eternity is a very long time, especially towards the end" Stephen Hawking (quoting Woody Allen)
"There are all kinds of interesting questions that come from a knowledge of science, which only adds to the excitement and mystery and awe of a flower." Richard Feynman
Iraq war and occupation costs


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Groovy23
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Hill]
      #1206540 - 07/18/08 11:07 AM

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Global warming brings new iceberg threat to Antarctic ecosystem



Click here to watch video

A new global warming threat to the fragile marine ecosystems of Antarctica has been identified, with the discovery that an increasing number of icebergs are tearing up the sea floor and destroying any life in their way.

The shallow habitats of species such as giant sea spiders (video), Antarctic worms, sea urchins and corals are facing a growing risk from icebergs, according to research that shows more bergs are floating freely in coastal waters as temperatures rise.

While these near-shore ecosystems have always been pounded by icebergs, crushing the animals and plants that live there, the rate of destruction is increasing as a warmer climate shrinks the winter sea ice that would otherwise lock the bergs in, scientists said. The retreat of coastal glaciers and the collapse of floating ice shelves also mean that more bergs are being shed into the sea, adding to the likelihood of scouring.

The findings, from a team from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), indicate that the ecological risks of climate change go farther than those posed by rising ocean temperatures.

Iceberg scour is a natural phenomenon, and while it is destructive on a local level it often adds to broader biodiversity by clearing spaces for new life to populate. Scientists, however, are concerned that a substantial increase in the rate of scouring could have unpredictable consequences, creating swaths of shallow water in which organisms with longer life-cycles cannot become established. “The whole balance of the ecosystem could be affected, with consequences that are very difficult to predict,” said Dan Smale, who led the study.

“The focus of research has all been on rising temperatures, but what has been overlooked is that it isn’t just warming of the water that changes the structure of the ecosystem. The distribution of species is likely to be just as important, and that is going to be affected by iceberg scour.”

The research, published in the journal Science, has been dedicated to Kirsty Brown, who died in 2003 while conducting fieldwork at the BAS’s Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula. Ms Brown, 28, who drowned when she was attacked by a leopard seal while snorkling, is named posthumously as one of the authors.

The study was conducted over five years at South Cove, on the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures are warming more quickly than anywhere else on the planet, by half a degree celsius each decade. This has led to the collapse of part of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in March, and to the loss of seven other floating shelves over the past 30 years.

The BAS team analysed the effects of these trends on iceberg scour by placing grids of small concrete markers on the seabed, at depths of 5, 10 and 15 metres. These were checked by divers for disturbances caused by iceberg strikes.

Dr Smale said that because sea ice was predicted to shrink further under the impact of global warming, iceberg strike rate was expected to increase.

Source: Times Online

Edited by Groovy23 (07/18/08 02:15 PM)


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mspelto
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Re: Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating [Re: Groovy23]
      #1224505 - 08/26/08 03:12 PM

Regarding the continued breakup this austral winter. It is surprising to an extent. But the breakup last year was driven not at all by meltwater but by thinning which reduced the stabilizing pressure of pinning points. The evident weakness and existence of substantial surface cracks already in this area led Humbert and Braun to predict continued breakup soon. They were not thinking of the winter, but given that meltwater was not playing a role here, it is not as surprising. It must also be emphasized that there is a common thread here for the breakup of the Wilkins, Petermann Glacier in Greenland and acceleration of other marine terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland. That is preconditioning for collapse via thinning whether due to surface melt, basal melt by seawater or simply reduced flow into the floating section, the thinning leads to less effective pressure restraining glacier movement, this allows it to accelerate, further thin and then collapse. Same story over and over, basal meltwater is not part of this story.

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carelyou007
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Global Awareness about saving the environment. [Re: Hill]
      #1225618 - 08/28/08 10:28 PM

The most concise and realistic info about the various awareness programs or self awareness about saving the environment can be availed at our website www.mygazines.com. In todays world one has to be responsible and understand that if we dont take steps to help or save the environment by daily eco friendly moves then it may be too late . Get info on all this and more at our most informative and interesting website
www.mygazines.com


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