Hans M. Kristensen (hkristensen@fas.org), Robert S. Norris (rnorris@nrdc.org) and Matthew G. McKinzie (mmckinzie@nrdc.org)
The Federation of American Scientists (www.fas.org) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (www.nrdc.org)
November 2006

An incipient nuclear arms race is emerging between the United States and China. The U.S.- Chinese nuclear arms race is not on the scale of that between the United States and the Soviet Union that threatened the world with peril for four decades, but it shows worrisome signs of intensifying. This wasteful and potentially dangerous competition still can be avoided if wiser heads on both sides prevail and ensure that military competition and worst-case planning do not undermine and complicate the far more extensive and important economic, political, and cultural relationship between the two giants.

To better understand the nuclear relationship between China and the United States, the dynamics that drive it, and its potential consequences, our report first examines Chinese nuclear forces in some detail, including their past development, their current status, and what future programs are underway according to the U.S. government’s assessments and other sources. We then provide a history of U.S. nuclear targeting of China – although much is still shrouded in secrecy, and conclude by simulating two hypothetical nuclear strike scenarios that are likely to be close approximations of actual war plans: a U.S. strike against Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile silos and a Chinese strike against U.S. cities.

Here we present some of this research in a format that can be interactively explored using Google Earth. The full report can be found at
www.nukestrat.com/china/chinareport.htm

Hi Matthew,

Thanks and congratulations go to you and your colleagues at NRDC for putting together this excellent piece of work.

Parts of it are pretty scary and a sobering thought, but the use of Google Earth as a geographic browser and information tool has been executed with perfection!

Thanks,
Phil

Not to nitpick, but you've missed a good deal of PLA SRBM/IRBM forces, all of the ICBMs, and the new sub base at Xiaopingdao near Dalian.

According to this interesting article : http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/04/new-...se.php#more-236
This is where the next imagery will show a submarine demagnitization facility : 'Demagnetization is conducted before deployment to remove residual magnetic fields in the metal of the submarine to make it harder to detect by other submarines and surface ships. '
This is a new capability for the Chinese Army, this technology was only possessed by the USA, Russia, England and France.



A close up view :



Source : Federation of American Scientists

I think something else to consider in the equation is the Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) infrastructure. There are a number of forum posts on the variety of interesting finds related to this area. Its clear the Chinese have made substantial C4ISR investments which could have a neutralizing effect on US force projection and thus may be considered force multipliers from the Chinese perspective. For example, a High Frequency Over-the-Horizon (OTH) radar designed to cover adjacent ocean areas from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea (no doubt with special emphasis on Taiwan) appears to be located near the community of Yongning, north of Beijing. I have posted a place mark and description there. Their OTH radar appears unlike OTH designs used by other nations given the very close proximity of what appears to be transmit and receive antenna arrays. There must be some sophisticated transmit/receive switching capabilities to enable this configuration to work. HF radars can cover vast areas and provide missile early warning, ship position, and aircraft location information at relatively modest cost.

See the placemark at these coordinates:

40� 30' 4.64"N 116� 1' 46.59"E

The above is used as an example to show the Chinese deserve respect as worthy adversaries having significant technical capabilities across the entire military spectrum. Their knowledge and expertise can only grow, particularly so given funds available for defense investments from a foriegn trade surplus. The combination of emerging technical expertise, financial resources, national will, and perhaps even population demographics (significant male over female surplus) stand to make the future nuclear balance between US and China even more worrisome. We ignore China's growing military might at our peril.