2004 saw the
Catarina, the 'first ever' hurricane in the South Atlantic and
2005 is on track to become the worst year ever for hurricane activity in the North Atlantic. Could CO2 emissions from the US and other countries be the cause of this dramatic rise in hurricane intensity?
Here is the basic theory:
(1) Hurricanes are driven by excess Sea Surface Temperatures.
(2) CO2 level are are increasing due to human activity.
(3) The Earth's surface temperature is increasing
(4) The recent increase in temperature is due to the increased CO2 levels
(1) Hurricanes are driven by excess Sea Surface Temperatures Although the total number of hurricanes has not increased dramatically, a
study by MIT researcher Kerry Emanuel indicates that hurricane intensity is increasing over time.
Quote:
An analysis of storm winds and duration shows that potential wind-caused damage has roughly doubled over the past 30 years, according to Emanuel, although tropical sea-surface temperatures have increased by only half a degree over that time.
According to the National Hurricane Center, this increase in hurricane activity is correlated to increased sea temperatures.
And it is not just in the North Atlantic. 2005 saw the the first ever hurricane in the South Atlantic, Catarina
Quote:
Pick up any text book on hurricanes and it will tell you that the one place where hurricanes do not occur is the South Atlantic Ocean. The atmosphere does not provide enough spin near the surface to get them started and winds higher in the atmosphere tend to shear off any that do make a start. Hence, it was with some amazement that meteorologists watched the first ever recorded hurricane to develop off the coast of Brazil in the last week of March.
(2) CO2 level are are increasing due to human activity.
CO2 has increased from pre-industrial levels by 38% due to human activity
By the way, the US is the worlds largest contributor of CO2 pollution and has contributed 1,500,000,000 metric tons of Carbon to the atmosphere.
After 2 decades of steady and even declining emissions, US CO2 emissions have dramatically increased over the last 2 decade.
The future looks even worse. We must note that the Bush administration has refused to support even the first step Kyoto Accords to control future CO2 emisions
(3) The Earth's surface temperature is increasing
The Earth's land and ocean temperatures have risen dramatically by .5 deg C in the last 50 years
(4) The recent increase in temperature is due to the increased CO2 levels
Evidence that that this warming is due to CO2 can be seen in sophisticated computer models which show that without CO2 effect, the temperature would not be increasing.
The 3 figures above show the computer calculated expected global temperature based on natural variations in solar energy and man-made CO2. The first chart shows the expected temperature due to natural variations in solar energy(Natural Forcing Only), the second chart shows the expected temperature due to man-made CO2 (Anthropogenic Forcing) and the third chart shows both effects. The close match between the predicted temperature and the observed temperature is evidence that the recent increase in CO2 is indeed due to man-made CO2.
The data shown above is taken from US CDIAC (Oak Ridge National Laboratory's US Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center), Climate Arc , UK's Met Office and the National Hurricane Center .
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